🔮 Predictions for 2023
Our bets on what the new year has in store.
Welcome to The Level Ups. The latest in business and tech for the future business leader (in plain-Jane English).
The world’s full of innovation, change, and turmoil. How’s it going to play out?
Here are our predictions for 2023.
Let’s get into it.
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes & 3 seconds
Side-Hustles Will Flourish:
It’s never been easier to make money online. But, the “Creator Economy” will stay flat.
As ad dollars dry up in this recession, so will the major revenue stream most creators depend on, sponsorships (ads).
Expect your friends to take Instagram and TikTok more seriously, sell crafts on Etsy, and pursue freelancing/consulting on the side.
But, the era of having a creator explode into a multi-million dollar empire is slowly passing by. Some will make it happen, but most will focus on side-incomes while keeping a day-job.
In December 2020, 34% of Americans had a side hustle. This grew to 40% in June of 2022. At this rate, nearly half of Americans (and Canadians) will have a second (or third +) income stream.
Elon’s Twitter Experiment Will Fail.
The idea that Elon will take over and turn it around will flop. A few reasons:
He’ll get bored and move on. He’s already announced he’s stepping down. It’s inevitable.
The media will tire from covering the same thing.
Elon is the marketing for his companies. He'll lose that amazing exposure when the media is tired of him. Can’t risk it.
The outcome will likely be an IPO, but who knows? Maybe I’m wrong.
The outcome will be net-positive, but the idea that he can turn it around won’t stick.
He’s just tanking his other companies in the process (Tesla is down 68% in the last 12 months).
But he’ll be okay. Did you know he’s a co-founder of Open AI? Yeah…he’ll be fine.
AI Will Take Over:
No surprise. It already is in many ways, but not for the masses. At least not yet.
User growth is the signal.
Check these stats on how long it took to get a million users:
Netflix: 41 months.
Facebook: 10 months.
Instagram: 2.5 months.
Chat GPT: 5 days.
By comparison, Chat GPT alone will reach peak Instagram levels in 2023.
This is the year an AI-generated work will win a major award. It already wins state fairs. The next level is pretty close.
This is only the beginning. Soon, AI will transform more than just writing and image generation. It will help us with investing, dating, getting a job, and much more.
Layoffs Will Continue:
Unfortunately, as the recession continues, so will layoffs. Good thing side hustles will flourish.
57% of business leaders who say layoffs are likely estimate 30% or more of their workforce will be laid off in 2023
70% of companies are likely to implement a hiring freeze in 2023
34% say their organizations are reducing or eliminating holiday gifts or bonuses this year; 27% reduced salaries of current employees
79% of business leaders say they’re likely to fire ‘quiet quitters’
74% of business leaders agree it will be easier to fire poor performers next year due employees losing bargaining power
These are savage stats. Aside from this small sample, the signs of continued layoffs remain.
Outsourcing is still cheap, some people are desperate for work, and the market looks like it won’t turn around for another 6 months at least.
The thing is: when the economy improves, I don’t think these companies will hire like crazy (as they did in 2021). The bounce-back won’t be as high.
Global Hiring Will Explode:
Sucks to say, but it’s true. Talent overseas costs less, people work just as hard (often harder), and many work on the same schedule anyway (so it doesn’t matter where they live).
Take your business right now. What would it mean for you if “coordinators,” “organizers,” or positions like designers and developers were 70% less?
Most companies that can’t make overseas talent work for them (typically) have management issues. They may say it’s their niche or some other excuse, but that’s not it.
If the business is so specialized that the difference in an employee’s ability to do the job is where they live, it’s a leadership issue (and a bogus excuse).
The first trend we noted is good news for anyone worried about their jobs. Best time to start your side hustle. Don’t sleep on this.
TikTok Gets Banned in USA
This is a bold one, but the signs are there.
As much as young people love using TikTok, and it can be transformational for many businesses, it’s coming.
U.S. lawmakers and government employees can no longer download TikTok on their official phones.
If the data collection is aggressive enough to warrant the government banning it from official phones, it’s only a matter of time. The app can see almost everything on your phone (who you're texting, what you're saying, your apps, your videos, your microphone...).
Lawmakers are probably waiting for a moment when banning it won’t ruin their political careers.
May require increasing tension with China, but that’s more about geopolitics than business, so I’ll save the rest for another time.
By extension: Youtube will be the big winner.
Salaries At The Top Will Increase:
This might seem strange with the recession, but hear me out.
As companies fight to cut costs, the most hard-working will have more opportunities than ever.
Remember all those stats about how companies are looking at hiring freezes and cutting staff? The people at the top now carry more responsibility. They’ll be paid more for it.
They will have fewer resources to work with but even bigger responsibilities.
More importantly, they’ll have options.
Someone who can carry a 100-person business can easily start their own. Especially now. How do you keep someone like that from leaving and turning into your potential competitor?
All signs point to higher pay at the top and fewer jobs near the bottom.
It’s controversial, but let’s see how it plays out.
New Investment Classes Will Emerge:
We already covered how investors buy back catalogues of old videos from popular YouTubers.
The next level is taking this to the next level.
Popular games on mobile apps.
Newsletters (like this one).
Old books (that still sell well) are due for a new edition.
Lost cost, profit-generating businesses (even at a micro-level) are slowly becoming major investment targets.
The shift away from massive growth (while burning cash) for a big outcome will cement itself in 2023.
Expect investors to start looking at smaller (but profitable) businesses for their next investments.
This covers the first 8 of many predictions for 2023.
We will track these and confirm how they play out. I’m as curious as you about how everything will play out.
What are your predictions for 2023? Let us know.
Also, please note that our schedule will be shifting. We’ll publish on Mondays and Thursdays via email (but with many more posts on our website).
More on this in our update later this month.
Thanks for reading.